Why counting detransition is so hard – and why the numbers you hear are probably too low

People who wonder, “How many really change their minds?” often meet two very different answers: “Almost none” or “We just don’t know.” The personal stories below show why the second answer is closer to the truth and why the first one keeps getting repeated.

1. Studies look for the wrong things
Most follow-ups only count someone if she or he reverses surgery or changes a legal name back. “Most people here wouldn’t be counted under those criteria,” points out tole_chandelier source [citation:05a99183-d8b8-4c22-a703-779304a0382b]. If you simply stop taking hormones, or never had surgery to begin with, you disappear from the data.

2. Researchers lose touch with the very people they should be tracking
Crocheted-tiger told her therapist she felt “probably just a woman.” “The ‘treatment’ ended immediately and I was never contacted for the follow-up of the study I was in.” source [citation:8b0a2df6-17c9-4112-8633-6a5456af7b84]. When regret appears, the clock often stops on the research.

3. The new wave of patients is different – and too recent to measure
Today’s group is mostly teen and twenty-something females, not the older males who dominated older surveys. “This is a completely different population that hasn’t been studied at all in a rigorous manner,” writes MrNoneSuch source [citation:5648486b-14a5-4f7b-a24c-63c941325900]. Because the boom is only a few years old, long-term numbers literally do not exist yet.

4. Academics fear career damage if they ask awkward questions
Ok_Dog_202 says publishing unfavorable results in a liberal-leaning field is “a career-destroying move.” source [citation:9bcf83b5-2153-4605-b7bd-de9a43e56715]. doctorlw adds that universities “don’t want anything to undermine their reputation as ‘inclusive’” source [citation:593d90e0-21bb-4e9a-96e4-3f1bd15b96d4]. The safest choice for a young researcher is to avoid the topic.

5. Community pressure can shut studies down
When Lisa Littman tried to survey people who had detransitioned, she was, in tole_chandelier’s words, “relentlessly attacked” source [citation:05a99183-d8b8-4c22-a703-779304a0382b]. Grant committees, ethics boards and journal editors feel the heat; many prefer to fund or print safer, affirmative work.

Put together, these forces create a loop: we are told regret is “vanishingly rare,” yet the people who could prove otherwise are either never followed, never counted, or never asked. Real numbers will stay elusive until researchers use broad definitions, keep track of everyone for many years, and can publish the results without risking their livelihoods. Until that happens, the honest answer to “How many detransition?” is simply: We don’t yet know, because almost no one has been allowed – or tried – to find out.